Unlikely to have Significant Drop in Property Prices

Channel News Asia: Significant drop in property prices unlikely: analysts

Jan 27

SINGAPORE : The recent government cooling measures in Singapore's property market will bring down sales volume, but not to the extent of causing a significant fall in prices.

According to a report by DTZ Research, sales volume is expected to fall as short-term speculators will be weeded out by the hefty seller's stamp duty of up to 16 per cent within the first year of purchase.

However, the property consultancy said not all investors will withdraw from the market.

Some may find the 4 per cent stamp duty by the fourth year of sale to be surmountable and shift their focus to buying uncompleted units with completion dates three to four years later.

DTZ's Executive Director for Residential, Margaret Thean said landed homes, small apartments and high-end apartments will be less affected by the measures. That's because small units with their low price quantum will continue to attract investors with spare cash or singles wanting their own units.

Thean added that the 4-year seller's stamp duty will have little impact on landed homes as most purchase them for long-term owner-occupation.

Meanwhile, high-end apartments will likely continue to see foreign interest.

DTZ added that prices in 2011 are expected to be largely stable with a decline of not more than 5 per cent.

This is underpinned by economic growth, low interest rates, strong holding power of developers, the appreciation of the Singapore dollar and inflow of foreign purchasers due to the property market clampdown in mainland China and Hong Kong.

The property consultancy does not rule out the possibility of more government measures should demand remain at a high level after a period of cooling-off.

The report also noted other challenges in the form of a spike in the number of completed units in a few years' time as the government is putting out a record high amount of units through the public housing and government land sales programmes.

There is also uncertainty over the strength of recovery of the major western economies.

If they recover well, interest rates will move up and reduce the affordability of mortgage payments.

On the other hand, if they continue to languish, this will have an effect on the Singapore economy and optimism in the property market eventually.

With the residential market facing numerous challenges, DTZ said investors are likely to take the extra effort to identify opportunities in other property sectors and alternative investment products.

Spottiswoode 18 update - Correct

My sincere apologies! Sometimes it pays to be late and accurate rather than early and inaccurate.

The correct figure for the take up rate for Spottiswoode 18 is 67%. Or 170 out of 251 units. 

On another note, the new measures might have inadvertently given a boost to developers of shoe-box units like Roxy-Pacific. As the measure get increasingly more onerous, the retail investors would be driven to the smaller units, so I'm inclined to agree with the 'industry veteran' in calling them 'speculators' when some of them are actually stretching themselves to get into the real estate bandwagon. 

However, as a real estate professional, my encounters with many of these investors have been contrary to common perception that they're reckless. Many of them are actually financially able and are genuinely looking for ways to invest and grow their wealth. 

Well, below is the article that started my post. Cheers!

Business Times: Small units a big hit at Spottiswoode 18
By UMA SHANKARI 

Around 170 units in Roxy-Pacific Holdings' 251-unit Spottiswoode 18 were snapped up at the project's launch yesterday at an average price of $1,900 per square foot (psf) - catching many market watchers by surprise.

The project's mostly small units proved to be popular with investors. Most apartments on offer at Spottiswoode 18 - 150 out of the 251 units - are just 387 sq ft. Apartments at the project go up to 1,324 sq ft in size.

There was also balloting for a handful of units as more than one buyer was keen on them.

The group initially wanted to sell only around 100 units but released all choice units due to the strong response, said Roxy-Pacific chief executive Teo Hong Lim. But he added that last week's government measures to cool the market have had some impact on sentiment as not many units were contested for.

Roxy-Pacific's news comes a day after Oxley Holdings said it has sold 22 out of the 36 residential units at its newly-launched Vibes@Kovan over the weekend.

Apartments at Vibes@Kovan are also small - the 22 apartments range in size from 377 square feet to 1,001 sq ft.

They were sold for an average selling price of $1,255 psf.

The deals surprised industry players. Said one industry veteran: 'The thinking now is that small units are mostly sought after by speculators, which is the segment that the government targeted with its measures. So it's surprising that these projects are still selling so quickly.'

Adapted from http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/

85% Sold! Amazing!

It is an overwhelming response!

SPOTTISWOODE 18 PREVIEW

Preview Schedule on 18 January
Discounted Price from $6xxK up.

11:30am: Multiple Units
01:00pm: Cheque Cut-Off
01:30pm: Balloting for Single Unit

Latest round of cooling measures

Here are the latest round of Government property market cooling measures.

1. Sellers SSD increased from 3 to 4 years on sliding scale at 16% of selling price 12%, 8%, and 4%.

2. LTV lowered from 70 to 60% for 2nd and subsequent loans

3. 50% LTV for non individual buyers (exclude developers buying en bloc for redevelopment), e.g. corporations, trusts and collective investment schemes.

Full information can be found at: http://www.mas.gov.sg/news_room/press_releases/2011/Measures_To_Maintain_A_Stable_And_Sustainable_Property_Market.html

Pricier new launches ahead

Business Times: More developers see higher prices for new home launches
By EMILYN YAP

Developers' outlook for the property sector turned rosier in the fourth quarter last year, with a larger proportion of them predicting higher prices for new residential launches.

Preliminary findings from the Real Estate Sentiment Index (RESI) point to improved sentiment from the third quarter, when the industry was still coming to terms with the impact of property market cooling measures introduced on Aug 30.

Based on survey responses so far, the Current Sentiment Index stood at 5.6 in Q4, up from 4.8 in Q3. For this category, respondents rate overall Singapore real estate market conditions now compared with six months ago.

The Future Sentiment Index - where respondents rate overall property market conditions over the next six months - rose to 5.7 in Q4 from 4.8 in Q3.

While the index readings rose in Q4, they did not surpass the levels seen in Q1 and Q2.

Developers were also asked for their take on the primary residential market, and a majority of the respondents thought more launches and moderate price increases were possible.

In Q4, 60 per cent of respondents believed that unit prices would be moderately higher. In Q3, just 12 per cent thought so.
Spottiswoode Residences, Waterview and Robinson Suites were some which reported strong sales.

Some industry watchers also reckoned that the sector's confidence grew as the impact of the tightening measures became clearer.

A Hong Leong spokesman told BT: 'While we took a cautious outlook immediately following the August 2010 cooling measures, buyer demand continued to remain strong for the group's various projects.' Low interest rates and liquidity in the market contributed to the demand, he said.

In the ongoing Q4 RESI survey, 69 per cent of respondents identified demand-side measures from the government as a potential risk to market sentiment.

Although this proportion is less than Q3's 83 per cent, it is still big enough to make state intervention the second most feared risk.

A possible slowdown in the global economy was the industry's top worry - 70 per cent of respondents said in Q4 that this was a potential risk. This is markedly higher than the 56 per cent a quarter ago.

(This is only an excerpt, for the full article please subscribe at http://businesstimes.com.sg)